Override Intelligence curates macro data from public Federal Reserve, BLS, and market sources. All values are updated monthly and reflect the most recent official release at the time of update.
Shiller CAPE Ratiomultpl.com / Shiller (Yale)
Federal Funds RateFRED: FEDFUNDS
CPI Inflation (YoY)FRED: CPIAUCSL
Unemployment RateFRED: UNRATE
10Y / 2Y Treasury YieldFRED: DGS10 / DGS2
S&P 500 ConcentrationGoldman Sachs Equity Research
Your Investor Profile
A fuller picture calibrates how you read this analysis and what's worth raising with a licensed advisor. No personalized investment advice is given at any point.
STEP 1 OF 9
What should we call you?
Used only to personalize this analysis on this device — appears nowhere but your own screen, and is never transmitted.
What is your investment time horizon?
What are your near-term liquidity needs?
What is your primary investment objective?
Which disruption scenario concerns you most right now?
Age bracket
Income stability
Investing experience
Annual income bracket
Debt load, excluding a typical primary mortgage
Tax bracket
Where most of your investable assets sit
Primary residence
This profile is stored locally on your device only. It is never transmitted or used to provide investment advice. It calibrates the analytical framing of publicly available macro data and surfaces relevant questions for a licensed advisor — not a personalised recommendation of any security or strategy. Override Intelligence is not a registered investment adviser.
Override Intelligence
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Override Score
Override Intelligence
AI-Era Disruption Intelligence
Macro indicators current as of — — sourced from the Federal Reserve, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and public market data.CuratedWorksheet (Excel)
Your path through this analysis.
Override Score
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Calculating
Composite disruption risk index across four macro pillars. 0 = minimal risk. 100 = extreme.
How to read this
This number is market-wide — the same for every subscriber today, since it's built from public macro data, not your holdings. Higher means more of the four pillars (valuation, monetary policy, market structure, macro stability) are flashing elevated risk at once. The so-what: a high score doesn't mean sell everything — it means the odds of a disruptive scenario have risen, so what you do next (below) should account for that. Your own, personal exposure comes later in the Stress Test.
Score Breakdown — Max 25 per pillar
Valuation Risk
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Monetary Policy
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Market Structure
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Macro Stability
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Your Intelligence Update
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The Verdict
Calculating…
Biggest risk right now
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Key trigger to watch
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Top scenario / probability
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Likely horizon
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What this means for your situation
Override Radar
Each blip is an active disruption signal. Distance from centre indicates proximity to trigger threshold.
Disruption Scenario Matrix
Four active scenarios. Probabilities computed from live data.
How to read this
Each card is a distinct way the current environment could resolve — they are not mutually exclusive, so their percentages don't need to sum to 100. A historical dislocation typically has one primary trigger that exposes secondary fragilities, which is why more than one scenario can carry meaningful probability at once. The so-what: the scenario with the highest number isn't a prediction of what will happen — it's where the current data points most strongly. Use it to decide which risks are worth stress-testing your own portfolio against, below.
Portfolio Stress Test
Enter your allocation. See the scenario-by-scenario impact.
How to read this
Enter your real allocation on the left (it defaults to a sample mix — replace it). Each scenario result shows a central estimate — what this allocation would likely do if that scenario played out — plus a simulated 90% range from the Monte Carlo model, since no single number captures the real uncertainty. The so-what: don't anchor on the central estimate alone — look at how wide the range is. A wide range means this scenario is genuinely uncertain for your mix; a narrow one means the outcome is fairly predictable either way. The blended estimate at the bottom weights every scenario by its own probability.
Each scenario shows a central estimate plus a simulated range from a four-factor Monte Carlo model — global equity, rates/duration, credit spread, and inflation/commodity factors, with idiosyncratic variance per asset class, run across 3,000 correlated simulated paths. Indicative and not advisory; see Methodology for the full explanation.
Prefer to run this yourself, offline? Download your portfolio risk worksheet (Excel) — same methodology, same numbers.
Portfolio Allocation
Total portfolio value (optional)
$
Enter your investable portfolio to see dollar impact alongside percentages.
US Equities
US Large-Cap 45%
US Small-Cap 15%
International Equities
Developed Markets 7%
Emerging Markets 3%
Fixed Income
Government Bonds 12%
Corporate Bonds 8%
Real Assets
Real Estate 3%
Commodities / Gold 2%
Cash
Cash 5%
Total: 100%
Override Dashboard
Everything above, in one view.
How to read this
Score History shows whether market-wide risk is trending up or down since your first visit — one reading in isolation tells you less than the trend. Scenario Probabilities and Your Allocation are the same data as above, side by side so you can eyeball which scenario your current mix is most exposed to. Stress-Test Outcome puts every scenario's range on one axis — the so-what is the shape of the bars, not just their position: wide whiskers mean genuine uncertainty, tight ones mean a fairly settled outcome either way.
Override Score — History tap for interpretation
A rising line means market-wide risk has been building since your first visit; a falling one means conditions have eased. So what: one reading tells you where things stand, but the trend tells you which direction they're moving — worth more weight than any single number.
Scenario Probabilities tap for interpretation
Longer bars mean more of the current data points toward that scenario. Since they're independent (not mutually exclusive), more than one can run high at once — that's a signal the current environment has multiple live fault lines, not just one.
Your Allocation tap for interpretation
This is exactly what you entered in the Stress Test, redrawn as a share of the whole. So what: hold this next to the Scenario Probabilities chart — a portfolio heavily weighted toward the asset classes hit hardest in the highest-probability scenario is the combination worth examining most closely.
Stress-Test Outcome by Scenario tap for interpretation
Each bar's central mark is the expected outcome; the whiskers are the simulated 90% range. So what: a bar with long whiskers is telling you the honest range of outcomes is wide — don't anchor on the center point alone for that scenario. Short whiskers mean the simulation is more confident in that estimate either way.
Your Model Portfolio
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How to read this
The Diff column is the number to focus on — it's the gap between the model's target weight and your actual weight for each asset class. A large positive diff means the model holds meaningfully more than you do there; a large negative diff means you're overweight relative to the model. The so-what: this isn't a set of trades to make — it's a starting point for questions. Ask why the gap exists (was it deliberate, or did it happen through drift?) before deciding whether to close it.
Target Allocation
Asset Class
Model
Yours
Diff
Themes To Explore
This model portfolio is one of a fixed set of pre-published allocations, selected only by your self-reported time horizon, objective, and scenario concern in your investor profile — never by any specific securities you hold. It is generic, published content, identical for every subscriber who selects the same answers, and is not a personalised recommendation. Override Intelligence is not a registered investment adviser. ETF examples are illustrative of a theme only, not a recommendation to buy that specific fund — do your own research before acting on anything shown here. Content reviewed as of .
Bring This To Your Advisor
Specific questions, built from your own numbers.
This platform does not give personalised investment advice. What it can do is turn your own entered numbers into a specific list of questions worth asking a qualified, licensed advisor — not what to buy or sell, but exactly what to ask about.
How to read this
Each item below was generated from something specific you entered — your allocation, horizon, income situation, or debt load — not generic boilerplate. The so-what: bring this list, and your actual account statements, to a conversation with a licensed advisor. These are starting questions, not conclusions — a good advisor should be able to give you a specific, reasoned answer to each one.
Override Briefing
Structured analysis. Updated with each monthly data revision.
Override Intelligence Briefing
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Override Score
Not investment advice. At any Override Score level, the appropriate response depends on your individual time horizon, liquidity needs, and existing positioning — factors that require a qualified financial adviser to assess. This briefing is for informational purposes only.
Override Watchlist
Eight indicators. Status computed from current macro data.
Indicator
Current
Threshold
Status
Context
Macro Indicators — Current Data
The data inputs behind the Override Score.
Digital Assets Context
What the current macro environment signals for Bitcoin and Ethereum.
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Analysing macro conditions…
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Crypto Fear & Greed Index
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alternative.me — live
BTC / USD—
ETH / USD—
BTC Dominance—
Regulatory & cycle context
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Digital assets are not covered by standard investor protection schemes. Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) are referenced here solely as macro-correlated assets for analytical context. This is not investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any digital asset, or a view on any token, exchange, or blockchain project. Override Intelligence is not a registered investment adviser. Consult a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. Do your own research.
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